Writing and the Pareto Principle
by Ray Tabler
The Pareto Principle is a statistical rule of thumb, which many natural processes seem to follow. Also known as the 80/20 rule, or the law of the vital few, it observes that roughly 80 % of outcomes follow from about 20 % of causes. This thinking is very useful when deciding how to obtain the most effect with the least amount of effort. Basically, address the relatively few causes for most of your problems.
There. That’s all the math in this post, out of the way right up front. You’re welcome.
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Pondering a random reference to the Pareto principle, I wondered if it applies to the income of authors, in this day and age. So, I googled that subject, author incomes. Many results popped up, but, surprisingly, very little hard data. Almost all were articles decrying the sad state of author income, sprinkled with individual scare statistics from document to which I do not have access. I don’t doubt the cherry-picked numbers, or the lamentable income of authors. But all of that did little to answer my Pareto question. Finally, I stumbled across a 2023 survey by the Alliance of Independent Authors, a graphic from which is displayed above. URL: https://selfpublishingadvice.org/income-survey-2023-media-links/. (Actual link below or in the comments.)
The graph shows that, indeed, most of the money goes to relatively few authors, and most of the authors end up with a relatively small amount of the money. No surprises there, and my question answered. Sort of. Whether this data follows the strict letter of the 80/20 Pareto principle is a task I will leave to those who know what they’re doing, statistically speaking. I try to avoid statistics in order to preserve what’s left of my mental health. As Mark Twain famously observed, there are 3 types of lies. Lies, Damned lies. And statistics.
Still, the data from the graph could be re-cast in a form more amenable to the question. So, braving a momentary threat to my sanity, I called up my creaky, old version of Excel and set to work. Below is a graph which more clearly shows that a few writers are raking in the dough. While most are not making much, if anything. This is not an attack on successful authors. They enjoy success for a reason, writing stories which people want to read. And, let’s be honest. Any of us would trade places with them in a heartbeat, previous envy a hastily forgotten memory.
Image generated by author, from Alliance of Independent Authors survey data.
Frankly, a lot of other callings are burdened with similar distributions, or worse. Of the approximately 1 million US high school football players in 2016, only 73,000 competed at the college level. The NFL has a mere 250 player slots open come draft day. That winnowing is more brutal than writers face. Furthermore, the average NFL career is 3.3 years. An author can usually look forward to more than that, if they remain motivated.
I didn’t write this essay to moan about this situation. There are plenty of other, more eloquent pieces out there which do that. It is what it is, and more words poured down that well won’t make much difference. Rather, it’s better to face up to reality, and decide how you will deal with it. That doesn’t necessarily involve accepting defeat, and putting down your pen in despair. Well, that would mean more money for the rest of us. But let’s not go there.
Instead, maybe it would help to find some other motivation than money for writing. At least, that’s the raft I choose to cling to. What works for me is the satisfaction, nay, blissful relief of evicting the story from my head. I don’t know how common this is, but if I’m working on a story, of any length, it bugs the hell out of me until I get the darned thing down on paper. Or, more accurately, in a Word document. That alone usually keeps me typing. The tale wants out, and it will continue ricocheting around, pummeling dents in the lining of my skull until an exit is found.
Also, I must confess to enjoying the process of writing. When everything is working just right, when the words are flowing from my brain, down my arms, and onto the keyboard in a smooth, steady stream, it’s a rush. I can hear the characters speaking in my head, and see them pacing through the action. Time ceases to flow, and I might not notice the outside world until my laptop notifies me it’s switching to low battery mode.
Of course, things don’t often work out that way. Usually, I struggle to finish a page, or a paragraph. I hang up on not being able to come up with the proper descriptive word. Or, doubts creep in as to whether the plot really ought to be careening down this darkened road. But, every now and then, things snap into alignment with an almost audible click, and I remember why I wanted to be a writer in the first place.
Before he took his own life, Ernest Hemingway lamented that the words “…don’t come anymore…” Hemingway’s worst words are orders of magnitude better than mine. The heavily-tarnished silver lining of the situation is that, should the ability to tell a story ever desert me, I won’t have such a dizzying height to fall from. Whether their birth be joyful and easy, or difficult and painful, I give thanks that I have words in me. Focus on that. The money will come. Or it won’t. I don’t discourage authors from seeking compensation for their work. People should be paid fairly for what they do. Just realize that if it’s the money you’re after, you’ll probably better earn a better living selling real estate. Or hammering nails, for that matter. The words are what’s important.
END.
Reference links:
· Pareto Principle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
· Alliance of Independent Authors Survey: https://selfpublishingadvice.org/income-survey-2023-media-links/
· Football
o Odds of high school to NFL: https://u.osu.edu/groupbetaengr2367/junran-add-things-here-for-real/
o Average NFL career: https://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/207780/current-and-for
· Hemingway: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/299958-hemingway-said-it-don-t-come-anymore-so-where-did-it