Chasing Rainbows

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Tally ho! Essay. 900 words, 5-minute read.

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Chasing Rainbows

By Ray Tabler

Recently, I was at an author’s event at a local library. About 20 local writers were there, displaying their works and meeting fans. There was a festive atmosphere, with authors visiting other tables during lulls in traffic. The event got me thinking about authors and numbers.

According to the internet the patch of Michigan where I live has a population of about 400,000 people (that’s 3 medium-sized cities lumped together with a lot of small towns). The attendance at the event probably didn’t capture every author in the area. So, let’s triple to 60, as an estimate. That works out to 0.15 published authors per 1,000 people, way lower than the local violent crime rate. Which implies that we have more murderers roaming about than scribblers. Although there might be some overlap. Especially those mystery writers. They’re sketchy

The point is that not that many people sit down, write, finish, and publish a book. Surveys show that as many as 80% of Americans believe they have a book inside of them. However, there appears to be a huge barrier between the urge to write and sitting down to start. The information I could find indicates that only 15 % of people who want to write a book actually start to do so. That seems high to me, but let’s go with it. The pandemic isolated people, and left them with time on their hands, So, maybe. Of the starters, only 3 % finish the darned thing (after much anguish, no doubt).

That winnows down to about 0.4 % of the population having finished writing a book. (4 per 1,000, closer to the murder rate!) This number feels right. Especially when you consider wealth of journals, diaries, and memoirs left behind by our forebears in the 1800s, and early 1900s. The urge to tell a story, yours or someone else’s, has always been there. In the past it must’ve been limited by literacy rates, but encouraged by the slower pace of life, which afforded time for reflection and composition. Social media probably drains away a lot of the compulsion to share today. But we have a lot more free time to fill. Hence, 0.4 % of people have written a book, statistically speaking.

Of course, now we come to publishing. About 1 % of finished books are traditionally published, 0.04 % of the population. As of 2024, there were about 5 times as many books are self-published as traditionally published, 0.18% of the population. That’s 0.18 per 1,000. Which isn’t far off from the starting guess of 0.15 per 1,000. Hmm.

The point of this essay isn’t to discourage anyone from writing. If you have a story in you, and most do, write the darn thing down. We are all compelled to leave a legacy behind. A family, a house, a business, good deeds. These all spring from the urge to be remembered beyond our years. It doesn’t really matter if it’s good enough to be a best seller.

Publishing is a strange business. The people who run traditional publishing try to guess what stories will sell. Most of the time they turn out to be dead wrong. The key is to place a lot of bets, by publishing many books. Of which enough hit it big to squeeze a profit out, and pay for the ones that don’t. The best seller is the rainbow they chase. It’s a seductive vision, and many sprint along in hot pursuit.

The advent of electronic, and print-on-demand (POD) publishing has opened up an entirely new field. The start-up and operating costs are much lower than traditional publishing. As a result, fewer total books have to be sold to make money. That lowers the barrier to entry, and allows freedom to try long-shots. More bets placed, with arguably almost the same chance of paying off big. Maybe not as big as a successful traditionally-published book, but big enough from the independent author’s perspective. Frankly, that’s a much more catchable rainbow to chase.

Then, there are those who are primarily interested in sharing their story. For them, breaking even would be nice, but not necessary. Their story is out there, and the goal is achieved. This is a slow-moving rainbow, but perhaps just as bright and satisfying.

Some would argue that books sort themselves across the above-listed categories by quality, the best achieving fame and fortune, the trash never seeing print. That is an oversimplification. We could each of us point out dreck that sold millions of copies, and masterpieces which simmered in obscurity. And there would be little agreement as to which is which. The quality of a book depends upon luck, marketing, and personal preference to an extent greater than anyone in the business really wants to admit.

So, if you have a story in you, and the data says you do, write it down. It’s okay if you don’t finish. You’ve scratched the itch, and maybe that was enough. If you do type END at the bottom of the last page, pat yourself on the back. That took a lot of effort and dedication. If you feel the need to share your story with others, go ahead. At the very least, you’ll add to the rich sea of human literature. And that’s something worth doing, whether you can quit your day job or not.

Pick a rainbow, and chase it.

END.

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